基于GIS的不同时期冰川旅游服务潜力评价——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

Evaluation of Glacier Tourism Service Potential in Different Periods based on GIS——Taking Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as an Example

新疆冰川资源富集,冰川旅游发展潜力巨大,但当前其旅游开发严重滞后。本研究从冰川资源禀赋、旅游资源多样性、气候舒适度、交通可达性、人口经济条件五方面建立了冰川旅游服务潜力评价体系,运用了层次分析法,借助ArcGIS空间分析工具,对新疆54个县市区冰川旅游服务潜力进行了综合评估,提出了相应的空间开发策略。结果表明:①北疆冰川规模较小,禀赋较差,但可达性较好;②南疆地区冰川资源规模大、禀赋高,与周边景观组合条件优越,但冰川可进入性较差;③当前,整体上天山中西部区域冰川旅游服务潜力等级较高,其他山系相对较低;④本世纪30年代、50年代,伴随着气候变化和社会发展,高冰川旅游服务潜力区将由天山一带区域向帕米尔高原、喀喇昆仑山一带区域转移。总体上,当前新疆天山一带冰川旅游服务潜力较高,未来伴随着小规模冰川的快速退缩,冰川旅游服务潜力将显著变小。基于此,应积极发挥当前冰川旅游服务潜力红利,大力发展冰雪旅游产业,以促进新疆全季、全域旅游发展进程。

Xinjiang is rich in glacier resources,and the development potential of glacier tourism is huge,but its current tourism development is seriously lagging behind.This study established a evaluation system of glacier tourism service potential from five aspects:glacier resource endowment,tourism resource diversity,climate comfort,transportation accessibility,and population economic conditions.By using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and ArcGIS spatial analysis tools,the study established an evaluation system of glacier tourism service potential,and comprehensively evaluated the level of glacier tourism service potential in the 54 counties or cities,finally put forward corresponding spatial development strategies.The results show that:(1)the glaciers in northern Xinjiang are small in scale and have poor endowments,but have better accessibility;(2)the glaciers in southern Xinjiang have large scale and high endowments,and the conditions for combining with surrounding landscapes are superior,but glaciers have poor accessibility;(3)Currently,the overall level of glacier tourism service potential in the central and western regions of the Tianshan Mountains is relatively high,while other regions are relatively low;(4)In the 1930s and 1950s,with climate change and social development,the areas with high glacier tourism service potential will be shifted from Tianshan mountains to the Pamirs and Karakoram Mountains.Generally,the current level of glacier tourism service potential in the Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang is relatively high,but the service potential of glacier tourism will be significantly reduced with the rapid retreat of small-scale glaciers in the future.Based on this,the current glacier tourism service potential dividend should be actively utilized,and the ice and snow tourism industry should be vigorously developed to promote the development of Xinjiang’s all-season and all-for-one tourism.