国际货币金字塔:中国的位置及行动策略

International Currency Pyramid: China's Position and Action Strategy

从微观的主权货币国际化视角来考察当前国际货币体系的结构、表现形式及其演变规律,根据2000—2019年货币国际化三大指标测度,可以归纳出国际货币体系具有多层次的金字塔形状、单一货币国际化程度变动缓慢以及整个国际货币体系结构稳定的特征.进一步分析金字塔成员国权利义务及成本收益关系,发现金字塔两端具有极端非对称性:中心国主导全球货币政策,享受“超级特权”收益,能够避免发生货币或债务危机且有能力转嫁危机并选择性履行国际最后贷款人功能,而边缘外围国(或地区)则被动承受中心国货币政策的外溢效应,承担“原罪”成本,不时爆发货币或债务危机并产生救助需求.中国处于第三层次的货币地位使之具有“超越原罪”的中间外围国货币性质.据此,我们应制订适应国内大循环为主体的战略转型、守住不发生系统性金融风险底线,实现贸易与金融双轮联合驱动战略以积极推动人民币国际化进程、稳定中国现有外汇储备规模并提升人民币在全球外汇储备中的比重等行动策略.

This article examines the structure,manifestation and evolution of the current international monetary system from a micro perspective of sovereign currency internationalization. According to the measurements of the three major indicators of currency internationalization from 2000 to 2019,it is concluded that the international monetary system has the characteristics of multiple stratifications resembling a pyramid shape,the slow change of single currency internationalization by degree and the stability of the entire international monetary system structure. Further analysis of the rights and obligations of the pyramid members and the cost-benefit relationship reveals that the two ends of the pyramid are extremely asymmetric: The central country dominates the global monetary policies,enjoys the benefits of " super privilege",and has the ability to export the crisis and selectively perform the functions of international lender of last resort,while peripheral countries passively bear the spillover effects of the central country’monetary policies and suffer the cost of the " original sin". Once the endogenous crisis breaks out,it will inevitably trigger the currency or debt crisis and generate rescue demand from those countries. China’s third-level currency status makes it possess the currency nature of the middle peripheral countries that " transcends the original sin". We hereby propose such initiative strategies as adapting to the dual-cycle pattern of the domestic and international development,focusing on preventing endogenous systemic risks,promoting the process of RMB internationalization,stabilizing the existing scale of foreign exchange reserves,and increasing the global share of RMB in foreign exchange reserves.