“一带一路”交通基建项目带来了沿线地区出口贸易增长吗?——基于三元边际视角

Does Transport Infrastructure Projects Promote Export Growth of the Areas Along the Belt and Road?——Based on a Perspective of Ternary Margins

文章采用产品贸易数据,实证考察“一带一路”交通基建项目对沿线地区出口三元边际的影响。研究发现:“一带一路”交通基建项目显著提高了沿线地区的出口概率,并促进了出口产品种类、数量和金额的增加,但降低了出口价格;项目对工业品出口边际增长的提升作用要大于对农产品出口的作用,而亚非地区国家较之欧洲地区国家能从项目中获益更多;港口项目更能提高沿线地区出口的倾向和扩展边际,而铁路项目更有利于改善出口金额和数量。

This paper utilizes the merchandise trade data to analyze the effects of transport infrastructure projects on the ternary marginal exports of the areas along the Belt and Road.The results show that the transport infrastructure projects significantly promote the export propensity,export variety and export volume of the areas along the Belt and Road,but it obviously reduces their export prices.Further,the promoting effect is greater on manufacturing products than on agricultural products.Asian and African countries benefit more from the projects than do European countries.The port projects have a stronger positive impact on export propensity and extensive margin,while the rail projects are especially helpful in facilitating export volume.