铁路基础设施外溢效应的区域比较研究——来自中国省域面板数据的证据

Regional Comparative Study on the Spillover Effects of Railway Infrastructure——Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data

铁路投资建设和客货运输不仅直接作用地区经济发展,同时也会带来间接外溢效应。本文基于我国30个省域1997~2017年的面板数据,通过构建固定效应和变系数的面板模型,运用SUR、GLS、FGLS等估计法,验证铁路基础设施资本与区域经济增长的外溢关系,并在同一维度上实证比较分析我国区域间铁路基础设施外溢效应的差异。结果表明,省域以及地区之间的铁路外溢程度差异较大,从地区看,基本呈现华东>华北>中南>华南>东北>西南>西北的差异格局,与城市群高度相关;除京沪苏浙鲁外,陕西、贵州等省域铁路外溢效应较强。从铁路影响机理来看,主要通过铁路网密度、城市群区位差异、交通运输结构、铁路客货结构等基础变量,改变铁路建设和运输从而传导至省域以及区域经济,引起差异的存在。本文建议依托城市群,完善区域路网布局,构建城市群之间的铁路"线"以及城市群内部城市间的网状铁路"面";合理配置铁路内外结构,提升铁路供给效率。

Railway investment and passenger and cargo transportation not only directly affect regional economic development,but also bring indirect spillover effects.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2017,this paper validates the spillover relationship between railway infrastructure capital and regional economic growth by constructing panel models with fixed effects and variable coefficients and using SUR,GLS,FGLS and other estimation methods.And empirically comparative analysis of the differences in the spillover effects of regional railway infrastructure in China.The research shows that the degree of railway spillover between provinces is quite different.From the regional perspective,it basically shows the pattern of East China>North China>Central South>South China>Northeast>Southwest>Northwest,among which Beijing,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shandong,Shaanxi,Guizhou have strong spillover effects and are highly correlated with urban agglomerations.From the perspective of railway influence mechanism,it mainly changes railway construction and transportation through basic variables such as railway network density,urban agglomeration location difference,transportation structure,railway passenger and freight structure,so as to transmit to provincial and regional economy,causing differences.It recommends that relying on urban agglomerations,improving the layout of regional road networks and rationally configuring the internal and external structures of railways,the railway supply can be improved efficiency.