基于系统动力学的高拱坝混凝土施工进度风险演化模型

Schedule Risk Evolution Model of High A rch Dam Concrete Construction Based on System Dynamics

为了探明进度风险因素间的演化作用关系,以高拱坝混凝土施工为例,识别了进度风险因素,定性分析了风险因素间的因果演化关系,采用系统动力学构建了高拱坝施工进度风险演化模型,并针对具体工程对进度风险演化路径和不同演化路径下的施工进度进行了仿真模拟。结果表明,风险因素间的动态演化作用对高拱坝施工进度具有较大影响,不同的风险演化路径对施工进度影响也不同,通过模型仿真分析了进度风险关键演化路径及其影响的显著性,为施工管理者提供了决策依据。

In order to explore the evolutionary relationship between schedule risk factors,the high arch dam concrete construction was taken as the object.The schedule risk factors were identified,and the causal evolution relationship between the risk factors was qualitatively analyzed.System dynamics was used to construct the schedule risk model of high arch dam construction.The progress risk evolution path and the construction schedule under different evolution paths were simulated for specific projects.The results show that the dynamic evolution of risk factors has a greater impact on the construction schedule of high arch dam,and different risk evolution paths have different effects on the construction schedule.Model simulation can determine the critical evolution path of schedule risk and the impact significance,which provides decision-making basis for construction managers.