重特大道路交通事故致因复杂性机理分析

Major Road Traffic Accidents Cause Complexity Theory Analysis

道路运输系统属于复杂系统,重特大道路交通事故的致因机理具有复杂特性。首先研究了道路运输系统的复杂特性;然后在对中国近年来发生的重特大道路交通事故调查分析的基础上,运用DEMATEL算法研究了道路运输系统重特大道路交通事故的致因要素及其复杂性机理。研究表明,研究表明事故致因因素对于事故的发生有着不同的贡献度,其中部分因素是关键诱因;事故致因各因素间有递进和关联关系,底层因素为本质原因,顶层因素为直接原因。

Road transport system is complex and the causes behind major and severe road traffic accidents are also complicated.Firstly,the complexity of road transport system was researched,and then,the cause factors and their complexity theory with DEMATEL algorithm on the basis of investigation and analysis to recent years’major road traffic accidents in China were researched.The result indicates that the causes make different differences to accidents,and the key inducement is partial factor,which makes major contribution.There exist progressive hierarchical structure and complicated association among causes factors,and the essential reason to accident is ground factor,the direct reason is top factor.