数值天气预报在广西的业务应用与进展

Operational application and progress of numerical weather forecast in Guangxi

随着计算机性能提高和数值模式的发展,数值天气预报在气象预报业务中发挥着越来越重要的作用。广西气象业务应用数值天气预报产品四十年来,在中尺度数值预报模式本地化应用、数值预报产品解释应用和气象要素客观预报方法研究等方面取得了一定成果。广西气象科技工作者采用天气学释用、动力释用、逐步回归、模式输出统计、卡尔曼滤波、神经网络和综合集成等方法研发了基于数值预报产品的温度、降水等气象要素客观预报技术,形成了支撑广西日常天气预报业务的方法和流程,对广西预报水平提高起到了重要作用。但传统的解释应用方法已不能满足智能化精细化预报的发展,数值天气预报在广西的业务应用迫切需要在人工智能、大数据挖掘等信息化技术方面加强研究。

With the improvement of computer performance and the development of numerical model,numerical weather forecast plays an increasingly important role in meteorological forecast. Since the application of numerical weather forecast products in Guangxi meteorological operation for 40 years, some achievements have been made in the localization application of mesoscale numerical weather forecast models, the interpretation application of numerical weather forecast products and the research on objective forecasting methods of meteorological elements. Guangxi meteorological technology workers have developed the objective forecast technology of temperature, precipitation and other meteorological elements based on numerical forecast products by using synoptic interpretation, dynamic interpretation, stepwise regression, model output statistics, Kalman filter, neural network and comprehensive integration. The methods and processes to support the daily weather forecast in Guangxi has been formed, which plays an important role in improving the forecast level of Guangxi.However, the traditional interpretation and application methods can no longer satisfy the development of intelligent and refined forecasts. The business application of numerical weather forecast in Guangxi urgently needs to strengthen the research in artificial intelligence, big data mining and other information technology.