中小河流洪水预报预警问题与对策及关键技术应用

Problems,strategies and key technology research of flood forecasting and early warning for small and medium-sized rivers

介绍了我国中小河流及洪水灾害基本情况,简要分析了中小河流洪水防御重点难点及亟需解决的科学技术问题,提出了中小河流洪水预报预警的对策与措施,并对未来影响预报、风险预警、网格精细化风险管理等理念创新实践提出了展望:将实现由水文要素预报向洪水影响预报转变,由基于防洪阈值的预警向洪水风险预警拓展,由"预测-应对"应急处置向网格精细化风险管理转变,由监测数据提供向信息产品服务延伸,水文现代化发展水平不断提升。

This study introduces the basic situation of China’s small and medium-sized rivers and flood disasters,and then key difficulties as well as urgent scientific and technological problems in the flood prevention of small and medium-sized rivers were analyzed.Thereafter,the study puts forward the strategy and measures for the flood forecasting and early warning of small and medium-sized rivers.Besides,prospects for the future forecasting,risk early warning,and refined risk management concepts and practices are also proposed.It will realize the change from the hydrological element forecasting to the flood impact forecasting,from the flood threshold-based warning to the flood risk warning,from the"prediction-response"emergency disposal to the grid refinement risk management,from the monitoring data provision to the information product service,in which the development level of the hydrological modernization is continuously improved.