中美贸易摩擦背景下全球价值链上下游博弈研究

On Upstream and Downstream Game of Global Value Chain in the Context of Sino-US Trade Friction

文章在探索中国和美国在全球价值链上下游如何博弈的前提下,研究了中美贸易摩擦对全球价值链上下游博弈的影响,并通过构建全球价值链上下游博弈模型,得出以下结论:在不考虑生产成本因素下,上下游企业的利润与垄断优势、关税有关。文章同时在实证方面进行研究,分析中美贸易摩擦以及中美技术差距对全球价值链的影响,得出以下结论:技术水平、资本报酬的影响系数均为正,需求、中美贸易摩擦、就业人员数量、总产出价格水平对增加值出口的影响系数为负。因此,推进产业结构调整必须注重高科技制造业的发展,促进经济增长的同时必须注重产品的自主创新和国际品牌建设。

Under the premise of exploring how China and the United States play games in the global value chain,the article studies the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on the Sino-US global value chain game.By constructing a Sino-US global value chain game model,it’s found that under the cost factor,the profits of upstream and downstream companies are related to monopoly advantages and tariffs.The article also conducts empirical research,analyzes the impact of Sino-US trade friction and the Sino-US technology gap on global value chain,and draws the following conclusions.Technology level and capital return have positive coefficients;demand,Sino-US trade friction,and the number of employees and the level of total output prices have a negative influence on value-added exports.Therefore,in order to continuously consolidate the development foundation of the manufacturing industry,transform the economic development mode,and promote the adjustment of industrial structure,we must focus on the development of high-tech manufacturing,promote economic growth,and must focus on independent product innovation and international brand building.