摘要
本文以2000~2017年城市数据为基础,结合VAR模型和空间数据探索性分析,构建了江苏省物流产业和区域经济发展水平综合评价指数体系,并从时间维度和空间维度分析两者之间的动态关系和因果关系。研究表明:经济增长对物流业发展存在一定的长期影响;物流产业与区域经济具有很强的相关性,体现出良好的协同发展特征,但区域间的协同程度差异显著;物流业与经济发展水平存在正向空间关联特征。最后,从梯度发展、均衡发展、垂直发展、平行发展等角度提出了优化物流业与经济发展的相关政策建议。
Based on the urban data from 2000 to 2017, this paper combines VAR model and exploratory analysis of spatial data to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of logistics industry and regional economic development level in Jiangsu province, and analyzes both from time dimension and spatial dimension. Dynamic relationship and causality. The research shows that economic growth has a certain long-term impact on the development of logistics industry;logistics industry has a strong correlation with regional economy, which reflects the characteristics of good coordinated development,but the degree of synergy between regions is significant;logistics industry and economic development level. There is a positive spatial association feature. Finally, from the perspectives of gradient development, balanced development, vertical development, and parallel development, relevant policy recommendations for optimizing logistics industry and economic development are proposed.
作者
唐建荣
曹玲玉
薛锐
TANG Jianrong;CAO Lingyu;XUE Rui(School of Business,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China)
出处
《物流科技》
2021年第2期1-7,共7页
Logistics Sci-Tech
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于多变量灰色预测模型的食品安全风险预警研究”(7187011262)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“企业家人力资本的结构、影响与激励研究”(2015JDZD11)
苏南资本市场研究中心项目(2017ZSJD020)。
关键词
VAR模型
序参量
协同发展
空间自相关
VAR model
order parameter
collaborative development
spatial autocorrelation
