脱贫户返贫风险评估及防控体系构建研究

Risk Assessment of Poverty-Relieved Households Returning to Poverty and Prevention and Control System Construction

实现可持续、高质量脱贫,是我国扶贫攻坚工作的重点。运用层次分析法和德尔菲法,选取收入水平、脱贫方式、政府政策、致贫原因、家庭状况等相关指标构建返贫风险评估指标体系,对豫西典型贫困区的脱贫户返贫风险进行量化评估。研究发现,样本地区存在不同程度的返贫风险,与地形、文化程度有关,且脱贫效果边际递减。因此,要建立由预警系统、阶梯激励、内生动力、返贫保险构成的返贫风险防控体系,形成对返贫风险的有效防控。

Sustainable and high-quality poverty alleviation has been the focus of China’s poverty alleviation work.In this study,analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method are used,and a returning-to-poverty risk assessment index system is constructed by taking into consideration relative indicators including income level,poverty alleviation methods,government policies,causes of poverty and family status,so as to quantify the return-to-poverty risk of poverty-relieved households in typical poverty-stricken areas in western Henan province.It is discovered that there are varying degrees of risk of returning to poverty in the sample areas,which are related to topography and educational level,and the effect of poverty alleviation is diminishing.Therefore,it is necessary to establish a risk prevention and control system against returning to poverty which is composed of early warning,ladder incentives,endogenous motivation and anti-returning-to-poverty insurance,so as to effectively prevent and control the risk of returning to poverty.