2014-2018年福建省水痘流行特征分析及趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018

目的了解2014-2018年福建省水痘疫情流行情况并进行发病预测,为调整水痘防控策略提供依据。方法收集福建省2014-2018年中国传染病报告信息管理系统的水痘病例资料及突发公共卫生事件管理信息系统的水痘突发事件报告资料,进行统计描述和分析。结果福建省2014-2018年累计报告58 934例水痘病例,年均发病率30.65/10万,2014-2018年水痘发病率呈上升趋势(F=20.055,P=0.021)。水痘发病季节性明显,呈"双峰分布",5-6月及11月至次年1月为发病高峰;发病人群主要集中在<15岁儿童,占总病例数的66.28%;男性水痘年均发病率(32.68/10万)高于女性(28.57/10万)(χ^2=52.895,P<0.001);职业以学生为主,占45.75%。同期共报告水痘突发公共卫生事件183起,波及208 809人,平均罹患率为2.08%,事件发生地主要在小学(71.04%)。通过自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型预测出2019年11月及12月的病例数分别为3 834例、5 369例,均超过2018年发病人数。结论福建省水痘疫情呈上升态势。应加强水痘疫情的防控工作,尤其应在高发季节加强重点人群(<15岁儿童)和重点机构(小学)的防控措施。

Objective To analyse the epidemiological characteristics and to predict the cases of varicella in Fujian Province in 2014-2018. This would provide a scientific evidence for varicella prevention and control strategies. Methods Varicella case data was collected from China Infectious Disease Report Information Management System. Varicella emergency report data was collected from Public Health Emergency Management Information System. ArcGIS 10.2 and R 3.4.3 software were used to perform statistical description and analysis. Results A total of 58 934 cases of varicella were reported in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018. The average annual incidence was 30.65/100 000, with a rising trend from 2014 to 2018(F=20.055, P=0.021);The incidence of varicella was significantly seasonal with a bimodal distribution. The incidence peak was from May to June and from November to January in the following year. The majority of the patients were children under 15 years old, accounting for 66.28% of the total cases. The average annual incidence of varicella in males(32.68/100 000) was higher than that in females(28.57/100 000)(χ^2=52.895, P<0.001);The main occupation of patients were students, accounting for 45.75%. 183 public health emergencies of varicella involving 208 809 people were reported during the same period. The average attack rate was 2.08% and mainly occurred in primary schools, accounting for 71.04%. According to the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model, the number of varicella cases in November and December in 2019 were predicted to be 3 834 and 5 369, respectively, both of them exceeded the number of cases in the same month in 2018. Conclusions The varicella epidemic situation is on the rise in Fujian Province. Therefore, the prevention and control strategies should be strengthened, especially for the key groups(children under 15 years old) and in the key institutions(primary schools) during the peak incidence seasons.