湖南6月区域持续性暴雨的强信号及预报概念模型

The strong signals and forecast conceptual model for regional persistent torrential rain in Hunan in June

基于湖南汛期区域持续性暴雨典型环流分型,利用1961—2016年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和异常度方法对湖南6月区域持续性暴雨环流型进行客观识别,并结合动力和水汽输送条件,确定湖南6月区域持续性暴雨强信号并客观量化表征,建立湖南6月区域持续性暴雨预报定量化概念模型。结果表明:43次历史区域持续性暴雨过程的回报准确率达到81%,2017—2018年3次区域持续暴雨过程试报准确率为2/3,说明该概念模型有一定预报能力,能为湖南暴雨预报业务服务提供技术支持。将该概念模型与各类模式预报产品相结合,还可开展区域持续性暴雨的中期和延伸期预报。

Based on typical circulation type of regional persistent torrential rain during flood season in Hunan,and using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2016 and abnormality method,the circulation type in Hunan regional persistent torrential rain in June was identified objectively.The signals for regional persistent torrential rain in Hunan in June were determined and quantitatively expressed by circulation type,regional kinetic ascending and water vapor transportation,and the conceptual model of regional persistent torrential rain was established.Results were as follows.The confidence rate of 43 historical events of regional persistent torrential rain was 81%and the test accuracy of 3 events of regional persistent torrential rain from 2017 to 2018 was 2/3.The conceptual model had certain forecasting ability and could provide technical support for business service of rainstorm forecast in Hunan.According to the conceptual model and combined with the model prediction products,medium and extended range forecasting of regional persistent torrential rain could be carried out.