中国金融发展存在收敛特征吗?——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Is there a Convergence in China’s Financial Development?Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于1978-2017年中国30个省、直辖市以及自治区的平衡面板数据,本文构建多个衡量区域金融发展水平的指标并使用多种回归估计方法,实证检验中国区域金融发展水平差异是否呈现缩小态势,即金融发展是否具有显著的收敛特征。研究表明:从全国层面来看,金融发展增长率与金融发展水平初始值之间呈现显著的负向关系,金融发展具有显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛特征,即省际之间的金融发展水平差异呈现明显的递减态势;从东部和非东部地区层面来看,金融发展具有显著的绝对收敛特征和一定程度的条件收敛特征。本文建议,一是逐步调整国家的金融发展战略,给予各地区平等的金融发展条件,加快金融发展的收敛进度,实现金融均衡发展;二是根据各地区发展需要,选择适宜的金融业态进行有差异、有特色的发展。

Based on the balanced panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China during the period of 1978-2017,several indicators for measuring the level of regional financial development were constructed,and various regression estimation methods were used to empirically test whether the level of regional financial development in China has significant convergence characteristics.The results show that from a national perspective,there is a significant negative relationship between the growth rate of financial development and the initial value of financial development level.There are significant absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence characteristics,that is,the differences in the financial development level among provinces display a significant diminishing trend;from the eastern and non-eastern perspectives,financial development also has significant absoluteβconvergence and certain conditionalβconvergence characteristics.This paper suggests:(1)gradually adjust the country’s financial development strategy,give all regions equal conditions for financial development,speed up the convergence of financial development,and achieve balanced financial development;(2)according to the development needs of various regions,choose the appropriate financial industry to carry out different and characteristic development.