财政经济走出低谷, 谨防地方政府债务风险集聚--基于湖南、安徽、辽宁和山东四省的调研

Public Finance and Economy Bottom Up and Alerting on Risk Accumulation of Local Government Liability--Based on the Investigation of Hunan,Anhui,Shandong and Liaoning Province

2020年11月,中国财政科学研究院启动“企业成本”大型调研,本专题组赴湖南、安徽、山东和辽宁4省7市政府部门和37家典型企业深入调研,期间,课题组深入分析了调研地2020年经受疫情冲击以来的经济增长与财政收支情况。研究发现,调研地与全国总体趋势一致,财政经济逐渐走出疫情期间的低谷,并逐步稳健复苏,经济形势向好。但同时,疫情冲击叠加以减税降费为主的产业支持政策的影响,财政收支紧平衡的压力较大,且由于部分项目在决策、资金分配、执行管理、绩效管理等过程中存在诸多问题,项目收益与债务负担平衡难度逐渐增加,尤其是地方政府债务偿还压力进一步加大,债务风险集聚问题值得重点关注,地方财政经济平稳运行依然面临较大的挑战。

In November 2020,the CAFS launched its"enterprise cost"investigation,the group visited 7 cities in 4 provinces including Hunan,Anhui,Shandong,Liaoning and 37 enterprises.The group also analyzed the economic development and fiscal revenue and expenditure in these areas and how they are affected by the COVID 19.Our research tells the following:1)the subject investigation area follows the same trend with other areas in China,its public finance and economy is leaving the bottom of epidemic with stable recovery and better economic situation,2)tough balance in public finance revenue and expenditure is affected by both epidemic and tax exemption&fee reduction,3)part projects has problems in their decision,fund distribution,implement management,performance management,they are difficult in balancing project benefit and liability burden,4)with greater pressure in local government's liability repayment,the accumulation of liability risk should be paid attention as well as challenges in stable proceed of local public finance and economy.