新时代中国省域供给侧结构性改革绩效评价与影响因素研究--基于习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想视角

Research on Performance Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Supply-Side Structural Reform in China's Provinces in the New Era——Based on Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想从动力、内容、目的三个方面对供给侧结构性改革做了深刻阐释。从驱动因素、结构优化以及人民福祉三大准则层面出发,筛选37项指标,构建省域供给侧结构性改革绩效评价体系,使用动态因子分析(DFA)对2012—2017年中国省域供给侧改革绩效进行评价,研究表明:中国省域供给侧结构性改革绩效总体呈东、中、西梯次递减;创新驱动能力是各直辖市、东部省份取得较好供给侧改革绩效的主要原因,供给侧结构优化(“三去一降一补”)滞后、人民福祉改善缓慢是制约东北与中部多数省份供给侧改革的关键因素,而创新驱动能力薄弱、供给侧结构优化滞后抑制了西部省份供给侧改革绩效的提高。各地方政府需要选择性地采取提高创新驱动能力、优化供给侧结构以及改善人民福祉等政策加快落实中央供给侧结构性改革任务。

Xi Jinping's economic thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era has profoundly explained the supply-side structural reform from three aspects of power,content and purpose.According to the three major criteria,such as driving factors,structural optimization,and people's well-being,this paper selects 37 indicators to construct the performance evaluation system of Provincial supply-side structural reform.Using dynamic factor analysis to evaluate the provincial supply-side reform performance from 2012 to 2017,we finds that as follows:firstly,the overall performance of provincial supply-side structural reforms in China has gradually declined form the east,middle,to west.Secondly,the innovation-driven capacity is the main reason for the supply-side reform performance with high level in municipalities and eastern provinces in China.The lag in supply-side structural optimization("th ree removals,one drop,one supplement")and slow improvement in peoples well-being are the key factors restricting supply-side reforms in most provinces in Northeast and Central China.The weak innovation-driven capacity and lag in supply-side structure optimization have restrained western provinces'supply-side reform performance.In the next stage,local governments need to selectively adopt policy,such as improving innovation-driven capabilities,optimizing supply-side structures,and improving people's well-being,to implement supply-side structural reform tasks formulated by the central government.