创新空间、产品空间与国家经济可持续发展

Innovation Space,Product Space and Sustainable Development of the National Economy

使用1995-2018年全球51个经济体的世界银行出口数据和Atlas产品空间数据,运用事件评估的有效识别方法--DDD三重差分法,对中美贸易摩擦在国家经济可持续发展中的影响进行分析。结果发现:首先,中美贸易摩擦直接促进产业升级和国家经济发展作用不显著,但对创新空间要素部分指标具有显著性,例如教育、城镇化、金融市场化和政府效率。其次,中美贸易摩擦环境下,创新空间和产品空间作用于国家经济,大部分指标具有线性关系,但城镇化、碳排放和国民人均收入的关系是倒U型曲线关系。此外,基于双重差分的结果显示,产品空间与创新空间的交互项显著为正,促进GNP提高0.747万美元,增加出口总额0.016亿美元。增加"中美贸易摩擦"进行三重差分,结果显示对国民收入和半导体出口量的正向效果分别为203.3%和137.5%,并具有显著性。研究中美贸易摩擦对主要半导体出口国家经济发展的实证经验,可能为世界经济的可持续发展提供理论支持和实践指导。

With the World Bank export data and Atlas product spatial data of 51 economies in the world from 1995 to 2018,the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on the sustainable development of the national economy was investigated through the difference-in-differences-in-differences method(DDD),which is an effective identification method for event assessment.The results show th at,firstly,Sino-US trade frictions have no significant effect on promoting industrial upgrading and national economic development directly;it has,however,the significant effect on some indicators of innovation space elements,such as education,urbanization,financial marketization and government efficiency.Secondly,under the circumstances of Sino-US trade frictions,innovation space and product space act on the national economy,and most indicators have a linear relationship,but the relationship between urbanization,carbon emissions and national per capita income is an inverted U-shaped curve.In addition,the results based on difference-in-differences(DID)show that the interactive terms of product space and innovation space are significantly positive,which promotes GNP to increase by 7470 US dollars and total export to increase by 1.6 million US dollars.With the Sino-US trade frictions,the DDD shows that the positive effects on national income and semiconductor export are 203.3% and 137.5%,respectively,and these effects are significant.In conclusion,studying the empirical experience of Sino-US trade frictions on the economic development of major semiconductor exporting countries may provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the sustainable development of the world economy.