寄主植物与环境因子相互作用对达摩麝凤蝶潜在分布的影响

Effects of Interaction Between Host Plants and Environmental Factors on Potential Distribution Analysis of Byasa daemonius

达摩麝凤蝶是一种亟待保护的珍惜濒危物种,然而目前我们对其自然资源的分布状况了解十分匮乏,只有零星的野外数据,这对于达摩麝凤蝶的保护工作十分不利。因此,通过物种分布模型来预测其潜在适生区是掌握其自然资源分布的有效手段。同时,达摩麝凤蝶与贯叶马兜铃(濒危物种)之间存在特异性寄生的关系。这种强种间相互作用在以往的物种分布模型研究中往往被忽视,但近来一些研究表明,种间关系在对有强烈相互作用的物种进行分布预测时可能是非常重要的影响因子。因此种间关系在达摩麝凤蝶的适生区预测中可能是不可忽略的因子。本文使用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),设置了Ma(仅考虑非生物因子)、Mb(仅考虑种间关系)、Mc(寄主植物的潜在分布)和Md(同时考虑非生物因子和种间关系)4个模型对达摩麝凤蝶的适生区进行了预测,并对Md模型使用通径分析量化非生物因子和种间关系因子对达摩麝凤蝶潜在适生区的影响。结果显示,各模型的预测精度都较高(AUC>0.9),考虑了种间关系的2个模型拟合结果表现较好(AIC:Ma>Mc>Md>Mb)。加入种间关系后得到的分布区面积明显缩小(高适宜区面积:Ma>Mc>Mb>Md)。刀切法结果表明,种间关系在预测中的贡献率最高。通径分析结果表明Mc模型(即种间关系)对Md模型预测的直接通径系数(0.578)和决策系数(R 2=0.546)均为最高。综上所述,种间关系是达摩麝凤蝶潜在分布最主要的影响因子,其在达摩麝凤蝶的适生区预测中有不可忽视的影响。

Byasa daemonius is a rare and endangered species,however,there is a lack of understanding of the distribution of natural resources and only sporadic data in the field,which is very unfavorable for the conservation of B.daemonius.At the same time,there is a specific parasitic relationship between the B.daemonius and Aristolochia delayayi(also an endangered species).This kind of strong interspecific interaction is often ignored in the previous study of species distribution model,but some recent studies showed that interspecific relationship may be a very important factor in the distribution prediction of species.This article use the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and the following four models,Ma(only considering abiotic factors),Mb(only considering interspecific relationship),Mc(potential distribution of host plants)and Md(considering both abiotic factors and interspecific relationships)were set up to predict the suitable habitat area of B.Daemonius.Path analysis was used to quantify the effects of abiotic factors and interspecific relationship factors on the potential habitat of B.daemonius.The results showed that the prediction accuracy of each model was high(AUC>0.9),and the two models considering interspecific relationship performed better(AIC:Ma>Mc>Md>Mb).After adding interspecific relationship,the distribution area significantly reduced(high suitable area:Ma>Mc>Mb>Md).The results of Jackknife method showed that the contribution rate of interspecific relationship in prediction was the highest.The results of path analysis showed that the direct impact(0.578)and decision coefficient(R 2=0.546)of Mc model(i.e.interspecific relationship)on Md model prediction were the highest.To sum up,interspecific relationship is the most important factor affecting the potential distribution of B.daemonius,which can not be ignored in the prediction of the suitable habitat area.