双循环新发展格局下城市产业就业承载能力提升路径研究——基于中国292个地级市量化评估

Research on the Path to Employment Promotion in Urban Industries Under a"Dual Cycle"Development Pattern——based on quantitative evaluations in 292 prefecture level cities in China

产业就业承载力是在一定产业规模和技术条件下所能容纳就业人口的上限值。本研究通过梳理我国城市产业就业现状与演进特征,构建包含充分就业、高质量就业和就业保障在内的3个一级指标和17个二级指标组成的城市产业就业承载力评价指标体系,对我国292个地级市产业就业承载力进行理论分析与量化评估。结果表明,华南华东就业承载力较高,人才集聚力强;浙江、江苏相对均衡,广东内部分化严重;东北、西北、西南地区城市承载力弱于华北、华南、华东地区。基于宏观决策的系统性、协调性、前瞻性要求,提出双循环新发展格局下提升城市产业就业承载力的关键在于尊重“人随产业走”客观规律,加快推进产业结构优化升级与可持续发展,短期重在留住传统岗位和保持制造业比重基本稳定以确保充分就业;中期需完善包括基本社保、职业教育、生育友好型社会等就业保障体系;长期要构建现代化产业体系以带动高质量就业。

Employment capacity in industries is the upper level of the population that can be employed under certain industrial scale and technical conditions.Based on reviewing the current situation and changing trends of employment in industries in China’s cities,and constructing an evaluation index system for the employment capacity with three primary indicators including full employment,high-quality employment,and employment security,theoretical analysis and quantitative evaluations concerning the employment capacity are conducted targeting 292 prefecture-level cities.The results show that there is high employment and strong talent pooling capacity in South and East China;Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces are relatively balanced,and Guangdong province has serious imbalanced conditions;the capacity in the Northeast,Northwest,and Southwest regions is weaker than that in the North,South,and East of China.In accordance with the requirements of systematic,coordinated and forward-looking decision making at the macro level,it is proposed that the key to enhancing the employment capacity in urban industries under a"dual cycle"development pattern is to respect the objective law that"people should move with the industry",so as to accelerate the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and sustainable development.In shortterm,focus should be on retaining traditional jobs and maintaining the basic stability of the manufacturing sector to ensure full employment;in the mid-term,the employment security system including basic social security,vocational education and maternity friendly society should be improved;in the long-term,a modern industrial system should be constructed to promote high-quality employment.