低生育意愿的一个解释: 养儿防老向商业保险养老转变——基于CGSS2015数据的实证分析

An Explanation for the Low Fertility Intention:The Transformation from Raising Children for the Aged to Purchasing Commercial Insurance for the Aged——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of CGSS2015

中国民众的低生育意愿已经成为影响人口发展的重要问题。基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2015年的数据,利用泊松模型、Probit模型、倾向得分匹配等方法,研究发现商业养老保险显著降低了民众的总体生育意愿,且主要显著降低了民众生育男孩的意愿。进一步的研究发现,家庭养育孩子总量显著降低了民众投保商业养老保险的概率,而民众“靠自己养老”的预期养老方式为在商业养老保险降低民众生育意愿中发挥了一定的中介效应,民众从依靠养儿防老向依靠商业养老保险养老转变。另外,个体层面、家庭层面和社会层面的诸多因素对商业养老保险降低民众生育意愿发挥了显著的调节效应。这一研究从商业养老保险的角度揭示了低生育意愿之谜,能够为我国制定未来的人口政策及大力发展商业养老保险提供一定的理论依据。

The low fertility intention of Chinese people has become an important issue affecting population development.Based on the data of Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)in 2015,using the Poisson model,Probit model,Propensity score matching and other methods,the study found that commercial endowment insurance significantly reduced the people’s overall fertility intention,and mainly significantly reduced the people’s intention to have boys.Further research shows that the total number of children raised by family significantly reduces the probability of people’s purchasing commercial endowment insurance,and the expected way of people’s supporting the aged,that supporting the aged by oneself plays a certain intermediary effect in commercial endowment insurance reducing people’s fertility intention,people change their way of supporting the aged from raising children to purchasing commercial endowment insurance.Also,many factors at the individual level,family level and social level have played a significant regulatory effect on commercial endowment insurance reducing people’s fertility intention.This study reveals the mystery of low birth intention from the perspective of commercial endowment insurance,which can provide a theoretical basis for the future population policy and the development of commercial endowment insurance.