基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的山东省公立医院医疗费用分析及预测

Analysis and forecast on medical expenses of public hospitals in Shandong Province based on GM(1,1) grey prediction model

[目的]分析和预测山东省公立医院人均医疗费用的变化趋势,为山东省进一步完善医疗服务价格动态调整机制提供政策建议。[方法]收集2012-2018年山东省公立医院医疗费用的有关数据,采用描述性统计、GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对数据进行分析与预测。[结果]山东省公立医院次均门诊费用从2012年的191.3元增加到2018年的257.9元,预测到2021年次均门诊医疗总费用会达到约311元;人均住院费用从2012年的6942.5元增加到2018年的9844.2元,6年间增长了近42%;预测到2021年,人均住院费用会达到12,390元。次均门诊费用中,药费占比从2012年的49.29%下降至2018年的41.48%,其他费用的占比变化较小,预测到2021年药费占比将下降至39.04%;住院费用中,药费占比从2012年的44.86%下降至2018年的26.82%,卫生材料费占比从11.09%上升至17.76%,其他费用占比变化不大,预测到2021年药费占比将下降至25.03%,卫生材料费将上涨至22.08%。[结论]山东省公立医院医疗费用将持续增长,医疗费用中药费占比逐年下降,然而卫生材料费占比逐年上升,体现医务人员技术劳务价值的费用项目占比较低且变化不明显。

Objective To analyze and forecast variation trend of per capita medical expenses of public hospitals in Shandong province in order to provide policy recommendations for further improving medical service price dynamic adjustment mechanism in Shandong province. Methods Medical expenses data of public hospitals in Shandong province from 2012 to 2018 was collected. Descriptive statistical analysis and GM(1,1) grey prediction were used to analyze and forecast the data. Results Per average outpatient cost of public hospitals in Shandong province increased from 191.3 yuan in 2012 to 257.9 yuan in 2018. It is predicted that per average outpatient cost will reach about 311 yuan by 2021. Per capita inpatient expenses increased from 6942.5 yuan in 2012 to 9844.2 yuan in 2018, increased by nearly 42% in six years. It is predicted that by 2021, per capita impatient expenses will reach 12,390 yuan. Among per average outpatient expenses, the proportion of drug expenses decreased from 49.29% in 2012 to 41.48% in 2018. The proportion of other expenses had changed little. It is predicted that the proportion of drug expenses will drop to 39.04% by 2021. Among inpatient expenses, the proportion of drug expenses decreased from 44.86% in 2012 to 26.82% in 2018, and the proportion of medical consumables expenses increased from 11.09% to 17.76%. The proportion of other expenses did not change much. It is predicted that the proportion of drug expenses will decline to 25.03% by 2021, the proportion of medical consumables will rise to 22.08%. Conclusions Medical expenses of public hospitals in Shandong Province will continue to grow. The proportion of drug expenses in total medical expenses will decrease year by year, while the proportion of medical consumables expenses will increase year by year. The proportion of the items which reflect the value of technical and labor services of medical workers is low and the change is not obvious.