我国全科医生资源配置公平性及预测研究

Research on equity and prediction of general practitioner resource allocation in China

[目的]了解2014-2018年我国全科医生资源配置现状,并分析其公平性。预测2019-2022年我国全科医生数量,为优化我国全科医生资源配置提供参考依据。[方法]运用泰尔指数分析我国全科医生资源配置的公平性,采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测我国全科医生数量。[结果]2014-2018年我国全科医生总数及每万人口全科医生数分别增长136,143人和0.95人。按人口、地理和经济分布的全科医生总泰尔指数分别为0.0324~0.0485、0.5986~0.6080和0.0171~0.0290。2019-2022年全科医生数GM(1,1)预测值为348,280~553,960人,每万人口全科医生预测值为2.48~3.89人。[结论]2014-2018年我国全科医生发展态势总体趋好;全科医生专业注册率有待提升;按人口和经济配置的全科医生公平性优于按地理面积配置的公平性,各地区全科医生分布不均,组内差异是造成不公平性的主要原因;我国全科医生需求缺口有待填补,中西部地区最为严重。

Objective To understand current situation of general practitioner resource allocation in China from 2014 to 2018, and analyze its fairness. Predict the number of general practitioners in China from 2019 to 2022, so as to provide reference basis for optimizing resource allocation of general practitioners in China. Methods Theil index was used to analyze the fairness of general practitioner resource allocation, and grey prediction model GM(1, 1) was used to predict the number of general practitioners in China. Results From 2014 to 2018, total number of general practitioners and the number of general practitioners per 10,000 population increased by 136143 and 0.95 respectively. The general Theil index of general practitioners according to population, geography and economic distribution was between 0.0324 ~ 0.0485, 0.5986 ~ 0.6080 and 0.0171 ~ 0.0290 respectively. From 2019 to 2022, the number of general practitioners GM(1,1) was predicted to be 348280-553960, and the predicted value of general practitioners per 10,000 population was 2.48 ~ 3.89. Conclusions The general development situation of general practitioners in China from 2014 to 2018 is generally better;the professional registration rate of general practitioners needs to be improved;the fairness of general practitioners configured by population and economy is better than that by geographical area, the distribution of general practitioners in various regions unevenness, intra-group differences are main causes of unfairness;the gap in the demand for general practitioners in China needs to be filled, it is the most severe in central and western regions..