兰州市七里河区2015—2019年法定报告传染病时间变化趋势分析

Analysis on time trend of notifiable infectious diseases in Qilihe District of Lanzhou City from 2015 to 2019

目的分析2015-2019年兰州市七里河区法定报告传染病的发病趋势,预测2020年传染病报告发病率,为制定有效的传染病防治方案提供科学依据。方法利用传染病直报系统数据,采用SPSS 22.0软件对发病资料进行描述性分析,采用时间序列分析(ARIMA)方法预测发病率。结果共报告法定报告传染病26种14 417例,总报告发病率为388.77/10万。每年报告发病率最高的传染病依次为手足口病(78.72/10万)、丙型病毒性肝炎(55.79/10万)、丙型病毒性肝炎(63.15/10万)、其他感染性腹泻(98.94/10万)、其他感染性腹泻病(127.06/10万)。建立传染病年报告发病率的时间序列自回归模型,R2=0.994,预计2020年法定报告传染病总体报告发病率为570.72/10万。结论兰州市七里河区法定报告传染病总体呈增长趋势,在全面防控传染病的基础上应关注一些重点传染病。

Objective To analyze the morbidity trend of notifiable infectious diseases in Qilihe District of Lanzhou City from 2015 to 2019,and to predict the reported incidence rate of infectious diseases in 2020,so as to provide scientific basis for formulating effective prevention and treatment plan of infectious diseases.Methods The data from the surveillance information reporting and management system of infectious diseases were used,and SPSS22.0 software was used to conduct descriptive analysis for the incidence data,and the method of ARIMA was used to predict the incidence rate.Results A total of 14417 cases of notifiable infectious diseases of 26 kinds were reported,with the overall reported incidence rate was 388.77/100000.The highest annual reported incidence rate of infectious diseases reported was as follows in turn:hand-foot-mouth disease(78.72/100000),hepatitis C(55.79/100000),hepatitis C(63.15/100000),the other infectious diarrhea(98.94/100000),the other infectious diarrhea diseases(127.06/100000).ARIMA model for annual reported incidence rate was established,with R 2=0.994,and the estimated reported incidence rate in 2020 was 570.72/100000.Conclusion Generally speaking,the incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases in Qilihe District of Lanzhou City shows an increasing trend.It is necessary to pay attention to some key infectious diseases on the basis of comprehensive prevention and control of infectious diseases.