应用Markov模型预测长期管理社区糖尿病患者队列心脑血管并发症转归研究

Application of Markov model in prediction of the outcome of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications in long-term managed community diabetic patients

目的通过卫生经济学研究建立模型对未来糖尿病患者的转归情况及医疗费用等影响进行研究。方法运用计算机建立马科夫(Markov)模型,对真实队列数据进行模拟,对心脑血管并发症转归进行预测分析。结果预测显示本研究队列10年后心血管疾病累计发生率为10.21%,脑血管疾病累计发生率为8.14%。结论通过干预,未来可以降低并发症的发生概率,或是延缓并发症的发生,进而减少相应并发症医疗费用的支出,获得相应的效益。

Objective To study the effect of health economics on the outcome and medical expenses of diabetic patients in the future.Methods A mathematical model was established by computer to simulate the real cohort data and predict the outcome of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications.Results The cumulative incidence of cardiovascular dis⁃ease and cerebrovascular disease was 10.21%and 8.14%,respectively.Conclusion Through intervention,the probability of complications can be reduced in the future,or the occurrence of complications can be delayed,so as to reduce the medical expenses of corresponding complications and obtain corresponding benefits.