阿卡尔河流域径流对气候变化的响应分析

Analysis of the response of Akar River basin runoff to climate change

根据阿卡尔河流域1981-2017年逐月径流量、降水量、平均气温及蒸发量资料,运用线性趋势法、滑动平均值法、不均匀系数法及小波方差法,分析流域气候及水文特征的变化规律。结果表明:年径流量、年降水量及年蒸发量呈递减趋势,年均气温呈增加趋势;降水和径流在不同年代变化趋势一致,呈现减小-增加-减小-增加波动变化;夏季径流量和降水量占到全年比例的40%左右,其他3季分配较少,春季和夏季的径流降水峰值呈现出了很强的同步性;年径流、年降水量变化的第一周期时间尺度分别为18 a、16 a,二者共同的周期尺度为6 a,在时间尺度上降水变化影响径流变化。

Based on the monthly runoff,precipitation,average temperature,and evaporation data of Akar River basin from 1981 to 2017,the change rules of climate and hydrological characteristics of river basin were analyzed by lin⁃ear trend method,sliding average value method,uneven coefficient method and wavelet variance method.The re⁃sults of analysis demonstrate the annual runoff,annual precipitation and annual evaporation have a decreasing trend;the annual average temperature has an increasing trend;the precipitation and runoff have identical trend of decrease-increase-decrease-increase fluctuation.The runoff and precipitation in summer account for about 40%of the whole year.The runoff and precipitation peaks show a strong synchronization in spring and summer.The first pe⁃riodic time scales of annual runoff and annual precipitation changes are 18a and 16a respectively,and their common periodic scale is 6a.The precipitation changes affect runoff changes on the time scale.