口碑效应、外生冲击与城市入境游需求--来自上海的经验证据

Word-of-mouth effect,exogenous shock and urban inbound tourism demand--Evidence from Shanghai

基于上海入境游市场6个主要客源国(新加坡、马来西亚、美国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰)2004—2018年的季度数据,采用自回归分布滞后模型实证研究口碑效应和外生冲击对上海入境游需求的影响,并在回归分析的基础上预测未来6个主要客源国赴上海入境游的潜在客流量。研究发现:口碑效应、大型节事会展活动和客源国经济发展水平显著正向影响城市入境游需求;上海入境游市场将呈现出稳步快速增长的趋势。据此提出,应进一步塑造良好口碑效应、兴办节事会展活动、实施合理定价策略、推进多方主体合作等,以促进上海入境游市场持续繁荣发展。

Based on the quarterly data of the six major source countries of Shanghai inbound tourism market from 2004 to 2018,this study uses the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model(ADLM)to identify the impact of word-of-mouth effect and exogenous shock on Shanghai inbound tourism demand,and predicts the potential passenger flow of inbound tour to Shanghai from six major tourist generating destinations including Singapore,Malaysia,the United States,Canada,Australia,New Zealand.The study finds that word-of-mouth effect,large-scale festivals and exhibition activities and the economic development level of source countries have significantly positively affect urban inbound tourism demand.Shanghai inbound tourism market will has a steady fast growth in the future.Based on this,it is proposed that good word-of-mouth effect should be further shaped,festivals and exhibitions should be organized,reasonable pricing strategies should be implemented,and multiparty cooperation should promote the sustainable and prosperous development of Shanghai inbound tourism market.