GM(1,1)变形建模中元素选取的对比研究

Comparative Study of Modeling Element Selection on GM (1,1) Model for Deformation Prediction

以某煤矿工作面内某点的沉降观测数据为依据,分别选取累计变形量、单次变形量以及日变形速率为建模元素获取建模序列,用c#对该点建立均值GM(1,1)模型,得到3种不同建模序列的沉降预测值。对比分析发现,单次变形量以及变形速率序列对建模数据预测优于累计变形量序列。而且若等周期观测,变形速率与单次变形量预测效果相同;非等周期观测时,单次变形量序列预测效果最好。

Based on the settlement observation data of a certain point in a coal mine working face,we selected cumulative deformation single deformation and deformation velocity as modeling elements to obtain the modeling sequence.And then,we used C#programming tool to establish GM(1,1)model and obtained settlement prediction results of three different modeling sequences.The comparative analysis results show that the modeling sequence of sigle deformation and deformation velocity accuracy is much higher than cumulative deformation.Moreover,if with periodic observation,the results of deformation velocity and single deformation are equal.But if with aperiodic observation,the results of single deformation are the best one.