夜光遥感视角下的中国城市规模的时空演变

Chinese City Size Evolution Under Perspective of Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

为探究中国城市规模的演变特征,基于总量统计、位序-规模分析和马尔可夫转移矩阵,利用夜光遥感影像分析了1993―2012年中国省级行政区和经济区的城市规模分布规律及演化。总量统计分析结果表明,所有经济区和省级行政区夜光都呈现增长趋势,其中大西南综合经济区、大西北综合经济区夜光增加比例最大,分别达到257%、254%,省级行政区中西藏自治区的夜光增长比例最大,达到842%;位序-规模分析结果表明,除东北综合经济区以外,其他七大经济区的城市聚集程度在不断减弱,其中大西北综合经济区的分散趋势最为明显;马尔可夫转移矩阵分析结果表明,10年间隔内城市规模具备一定的惯性,其中最小城市规模类型保持不变的概率最高(达到82%),同时存在一定的概率发生城市向邻近等级规模城市转换的现象,但发生跨越式规模变迁的概率很低。该结论在长时间序列、多空间尺度揭示了中国城市规模演变的特征,为评估中国城市发展政策提供了依据。

In order to investigate the evolution patterns of city size in China,nighttime light images were used to analyze city size distribution and its spatiotemporal patterns for 338 prefectural cities from 1993 to2012 based on total nighttime light index,rank-size analysis and Markov transition matrix analysis.Statistical analysis shows that,all provincial regions and economic zones have experienced nighttime light growth,with a growth rate of 257% in the Southwest and 254% in the Northwest.Tibet is the fastest growing provincial region with a growth rate of 842%.The rank-size analysis shows all the other economic zones,except for the Northeast economic zone,become less agglomerated during this period.The Markov transition matrix analysis shows the city size has inertia from 1993 to 2012.Cities in lowest level remain their levels with a probability of 82%.In addition,the size of a city may transit to the neighboring level,but the crossing-level transition rarely happens.This study reveals the city size evolution patterns in a multiple spatial scale and a long period,providing evidences to evaluate policies for Chinese urban development.