内蒙古2010-2015年甲状腺癌发病与死亡现状及趋势分析

Epidemiological characteristics and trends of thyroid cancer in Inner Mongolia,2010-2015

目的分析内蒙古肿瘤登记地区2010-2015年甲状腺癌发病与死亡现状及流行趋势。方法收集2010-2015年内蒙古肿瘤登记地区发病与死亡数据,按照城乡、性别及年龄别发病率和死亡率分层,计算甲状腺癌的发病(死亡)粗率、标化率、累计率和年龄别率等,利用Joinpoint软件分析发病和死亡趋势及年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)。采用2000年全国人口普查人口结构和Segi’s世界人口结构作为标准计算标化率。结果2015年内蒙古肿瘤登记地区共报告甲状腺癌新发病例3179例,死亡病例168例。甲状腺癌发病率15.55/10万,中标率11.67/10万,世标率10.47/10万,累计率(0~74岁)1.03%。甲状腺癌死亡率0.67/10万,中标率0.51/10万,世标率0.53/10万,累计率(0~74岁)0.07%。其中,甲状腺癌的发病率和死亡率均城市高于农村,女性高于男性。从时间趋势上看,甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势,中标率从2010年的4.21/10万上升至2015年的11.67/10万,APC=29.58%(P=0.04),死亡率无明显变化。从年龄别趋势来看,30~34岁年龄组发病率年增长速度最快,APC=34.01%(P=0.02);60~74岁组APC=17.76%(P=0.02),死亡率变化无统计学意义。结论2015年内蒙古肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌的发病率高于全国平均水平,2010-2015年内蒙古甲状腺癌的发病率呈快速上升趋势,但甲状腺癌的死亡率无明显变化,提示过度筛查可能是发病率快速增长的主要原因。

OBJECTIVE To analyze the characteristics incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and the trend from 2010 to 2015.METHODS The data of thyroid cancer from Inner Mongolia autonomous region,2010-2015.Incidence and mortality rates were stratified by urban/rural,gender,age groups.The annual percentage change(APC)of the incidence/mortality was analyzed by Joinpoint regression.Chinese standard population in2000 and Segi’s world population were used for age-standardized incidence and mortality rates.RESULTS There were3179 new cases and 168 deaths of thyroid cancer were registered in 2015.The crude incidence rate was 15.55/10~5,with ASR China of 11.67/10~5 and ASR world of 10.47/10~5.The cumulative incidence rate(0-74 years)was 1.03%,mortality was 0.67/10~5,with ASR China of 0.51/10~5 and ASR world of 0.53/10~5.The cumulative incidence rate(0-74 years)was 0.07%.2010-2015.The incidence for females was higher than that for males,urban higher than rural.From 2010 to2015,the ASR China of thyroid cancer incidence was increased from 4.21/10~5 to 11.67/10~5(APC=29.58%,P=0.04),30-34 years(APC=34.01%,P=0.02),60-74 years(APC=17.76%,P=0.02).The change of mortality was not statistically significant.CONCLUSIONS The incidence of thyroid cancer in Inner Mongolia is higher than the national average in 2015.There is an increasing trend of thyroid cancer incidence,but the mortality has no significant changes.Excessive screening may be the main reason for the rapid increase in incidence of thyroid cancer.