银行市值的重要性与中国银行业估值偏低的讨论

Discussion on the Importance of Bank’s Market Value and the Low Valuation of China’s Banking Industry

中国大型银行股改上市后的规模和利润增长很快,核心指标也基本上与国际银行比肩,但估值水平却低于美国的银行同业。虽然业界对于银行的评价方法一直备受争议,越来越多的人已经意识到,资产规模、盈利能力、资产质量等评价指标只能反映银行某一方面的能力,不能全面反映银行的综合实力和竞争力;相对而言,市值指标是一种长期趋势性判断,隐含了不同银行在盈利能力、产品定价、风险管控以及公司治理等可持续核心竞争能力方面的差异,代表着市场对一家银行发展前景的综合认知。我们在理论分析和实践观察中深切感到:投资者和银行管理层都必须正确理解市值,了解即期市值形成机制,不应该被短期银行市值波动所困惑,更不应该被左右,但必须重视银行市值变化发出的信号,理性判断银行价值,有针对性地提升银行管理能力。

The scale and profits of China’s large banks have grown rapidly after their share reform and listing.Their core indicators are basically comparable to that of international banks,but their valuation is lower than their counterparts in America.Though the evaluation methods for banks have always been controversial,more and more people have realized that evaluation indicators such as asset scale,profitability,and asset quality can only reflect certain capabilities of a bank,rather than its comprehensive strength and competitiveness.The market value indicator is relatively a long-term trend judgment,which implies the difference in the sustainable core competitiveness of different banks in terms of profitability,product pricing,risk control,and corporate governance,and demonstrates the comprehensive view of the market on the development prospect of a bank.After theoretical analysis and practical observance,this article strongly argues that both investors and the bank management team should correctly understand market value and know the formation mechanism of spot market value.They should not be confused and influenced by the short-term fluctuation of bank’s market value,but should pay due attention to the signals of market value changes,rationally judge a bank’s value,and correspondingly improve their capability of managing banks.