长距离管道水毁灾害风险的半结构化评价研究

Research on semi-structured risk evaluation of water damage disaster in long-distance pipelines

为提升长距离埋地管道水毁灾害风险辨识和防控能力,构建了长距离管道水毁灾害孕育风险的半结构化评价方法。首先分析长距离管道水毁灾害的孕育特征,归纳水毁灾害风险的易发性和易损性因素,建立水毁风险评价指标体系;然后基于水毁风险评价指标,确定半结构化处理方法,构建FAHP综合评价模型,划分管道水毁风险等级;最后选取川气东送管道改迁工程的10段管道作为评价对象,对易发性和易损性风险指标进行半结构化处理,评价水毁风险等级。结果表明:该工程整体风险评分较高,部分管道风险等级为高风险,需根据分级管控方案优化管道水毁风险因素,提升项目安全管理水平。提出的半结构化评价方法能够有效评价长距离埋地管道水毁灾害风险现状,为管道水毁灾害治理提供理论支撑。

To improve the ability of identifying,preventing and controlling the water damage disaster in long-distance buried pipelines,a semi-structured evaluation model for the risk of long-distance pipeline water damage disaster was established.Firstly,the characteristics of long-distance pipeline water disaster was analyzed,the susceptibility and vulnerability factors of water disaster risk was summarized,and a water damage risk evaluation indices system was established.Then,based on the evaluation indices,the semi-structured treatment method was determined.A FAHP comprehensive evaluation model to classify the risk of pipeline water damage was constructed.Finally,10 sections of the Sichuan-East Gas Pipeline Relocation Project were selected as the evaluation objects,and the risk indices of vulnerability and vulnerability were semi-structured,and the risk of water damage was evaluated.The results showed that the overall risk of the project was high,and the risk level of some pipelines was high risk.It was necessary to optimize the risk factors of pipeline water damage according to the hierarchical management and control plan and improve the project safety management level.The semi-structured evaluation method proposed in this paper can effectively evaluate the current status of long-distance buried pipeline water damage disaster and provide theoretical support for pipeline water damage disaster management.