长江口台风影响能力研究

Study on impact ability of typhoons affecting Yangtze Estuary

长江口作为我国第一大河口饱受台风和风暴潮的侵扰,然而影响长江口的台风活动特征却尚不明晰。基于长江口台风影响圆假定,提出了小区域台风影响能力的评估指标;并利用1949~2018年最佳台风路径资料,采用多指标对影响长江口的台风活动特性进行了长周期的统计和分析。结果表明:1991~2018年的近30 a间长江口台风影响能力略低,但2009年以后台风影响能力一直保持增长趋势。相比20世纪80年代之前,影响长江口的强台风和超强台风数有所减少,但是近年台风总频数较大。

The Yangtze Estuary,as the largest estuary of China,is attacked by typhoons and storm surges frequently,however the characteristics of tropical cyclone activities influencing the region are still unclear.Based on the hypothesis of the typhoon influence circle of the Yangtze Estuary,an index for typhoon impact evaluation in regional areas was suggested and long-term statistics and research of typhoon influence capacity in the Yangtze Estuary were carried out by multiple indicators using the best typhoon track data from 1949 to 2018.The results showed that:the impact ability of typhoon on the Yangtze Estuary was slightly lower from 1991 to 2018 while an increasing trend was detected since 2009.The number of strong typhoon and super typhoon affecting the Yangtze Estuary had decreased than that before 1980s,but typhoons had a slightly higher frequency in recent years.