西北江网河区顶端分流前后年径流总量联合频率变化特征解析

Joint Frequency Variation Characteristics of Total Annual Runoff before and after Diversion at the Top of North River and West River Delta

环境的变化导致西北江网河区顶端分流呈现较大的变化,该文根据三水站和马口站1959—2016年流量资料,从分流前后年径流总量联合频率变化角度,解析西北江网河区顶端分流关系。研究结果表明:由于分流量随着年代的延伸三水站和马口站分得的径流总量分别呈现不同的变化趋势。因此,分流前后年径流总量联合频率的变化呈现较为复杂的关系。整体上,若分流前年径流总量和分流后的马口(三水)站的联合重现期较小时,随着分流前的年径流总量和分流后的三水(马口)站的联合重现期的增大,马口和三水站的联合重现期依旧较小;若分流前年径流总量和分流后的马口(三水)站的联合重现期较大时,随着分流前的年径流总量和分流后的三水(马口)站的联合重现期的增大,马口和三水站的重现期亦呈现增加的趋势。该结果可为珠江三角洲供水规划、生态需水和航道整治等相关工作提供参考。

According to the 58 year discharge data of Makou station and Sanshui station from 1959 to 2016,this paper analyzes the top diversion relationship of North River and West River Delta from the joint frequency change of annual runoff before and after diversion.The results show that:with the extension of the years,the total runoff of Sanshui station and Makou station shows different trends.Therefore,the change of joint frequency of annual runoff before and after the diversion presents a more complex relationship.On the whole,If the joint return period of the total annual runoff before diversion and Makou(Sanshui)station after diversion are small.With the increase of the joint return period of the total annual runoff before diversion and Sanshui(Makou)station after diversion,the joint return period of Makou and Sanshui stations is still small.If the joint return period of the total annual runoff before diversion and Makou(Sanshui)station after diversion are large.With the increase of the joint return period of the total annual runoff before diversion and Sanshui(Makou)station after diversion,the joint return period of Makou and Sanshui stations is still large.The results provide reference for water supply planning,ecological water demand and waterway regulation of Zhujiang Delta.