报童订购行为:订购成本与性别影响因素分析

Newsvendor's ordering behavior:Analysis on effects of ordering cost and gender

本文采用数理模型和管理实验方法研究报童订购量拉向中心偏差问题.首先,分析企业订购水平行为,得出采用对偶平衡策略,即多订购所导致的成本等于少订购所导致的成本,可解释此偏差;并且,在最差情况下,采用对偶平衡策略引发的成本不超过采用最优策略引发的成本的两倍.其次,分析企业订购调整行为,得出:第一,在高(低)边际利润情境中,相对于前期少订购给企业带来的影响,前期多订购给企业带来的影响较小(大);据此,企业可在高(低)边际利润情境中助推决策者关注少(多)订购造成的损失,以缓解拉向中心偏差.第二,相对于女性被试,男性被试的当期订购量受前期订购量的影响较小,表明男性对自我的界定和决策行为相对不易受外界因素影响,此研究发现提醒企业需关注两性在订购决策行为方面的差异.

This paper aims to give a new perspective and further discussion of the pull-to-center effect in the newsvendor model,using the mathematical model and the management experiment method.Firstly,from the viewpoint of the level behavior of the order quantity,the dual-balance strategy where the total overage cost is equal to the total underage cost can well explain the pull-to-center effect.What's more,operations cost induced by the dual balance strategy is no more than twice that induced by the optimal strategy.Secondly,from the viewpoint of the adjustment behavior of the order quantity,two findings are derived.One is that the overage has less(more)effect on the order quantity than the underage order in the high-(low-)marginal profit situation.Hence,enterprises can nudge decision makers to pay more attention to the loss of underage(overage)order in high-(low-)marginal profit settings to ease the pull-to-center effect.The other is that compared with women,males’order quantities are less affected by underage(overage)order,which shows males’self-definition and decision-making behavior are not sensitive to external factors.Therefore,enterprises are advised to pay attention to gender differences in order behaviors.