基于情景构建与推演的企业应急能力评估

Assessment of Enterprise Emergency Capability Based on Scenario Construction and Deduction

在企业的应急管理过程中,为满足实时应急决策需求,需要对企业的应急能力进行评估。首先,从应急预防、应急准备、应急响应、应急恢复四个阶段梳理得出一般企业的应急能力评估指标体系;其次,将所有应急能力评估指标取其乐观状态作为企业应急情景的基本事件;最后,综合采用交叉影响分析法和解释结构模型法对企业的应急情景进行构建和推演。研究结果表明:运用该情景构建与推演方法来评估企业的应急能力合理可行,推演结果可以得到提高企业应急能力的最有效措施或措施组合,对于企业的应急管理决策具有指导意义。

In the process of enterprise emergency management,in order to meet the needs of real-time emergency decision-making,it is necessary to evaluate the emergency capacity of enterprises.Firstly,from the four stages of emergency prevention,emergency preparation,emergency response and emergency recovery,the evaluation index system of emergency capability of general enterprises was obtained.Secondly,the optimistic state of all emergency capability evaluation indexes was taken as the basic event of emergency scenarios for enterprises.Finally,cross-impact analysis method and interpretive structural model method were used to construct and deduce the emergency scenarios of enterprises.The results show that it is reasonable and feasible to use this scenario construction and deduction method to assess the emergency capability of enterprises,the deduction results could obtain the most effective measures or combination of measures to improve the emergency capacity of enterprises,which have guiding significance for the emergency management decisions of enterprises.