Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity

We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead.Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses(HCoVs)shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly,but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived.Our model,incorporating these components of immunity,recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs,suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood,CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold.