农户受灾经历对气候变化感知与适应行为的影响研究

Impact of Farmers’Disaster Experience on Climate Change Perception and Adaptation

采用陕北农户样本调查数据与气象数据,使用独立样本T检验和路径分析探究农户受灾经历对气候变化感知与适应行为的影响。结果发现:受灾经历越丰富的农户越能准确感知气温、降水变化和全球变暖。农户的受灾经历对气温变化感知有正向影响,并通过其对迁移适应行为有间接的负向影响;受灾经历对降水变化感知有负向影响,并通过其对技术适应行为有负向影响、对迁移适应行为产生正向影响;农户受灾经历增强了全球变暖信念,并通过其对经济适应行为和技术适应行为产生间接的正向影响;受灾经历对迁移适应行为有直接的负向影响。

In this study,the sample survey data of farmer in northern Shaanxi were adopted.Combined with the observation data of meteorological stations,the independent sample t-test and path analysis were used for exploring the impact of farmers’disaster experience on climate change perception and adaptation.The result showed that farmer with richer disaster experience could perceive temperature,precipitation change and global warming more accurately,and then adopt different adaptive behaviors to cope with climate change.Path analysis showed that disaster experience has a positive impact on temperature change perception and an indirect negative impact on migration and adaptation behavior.At the same time,disaster experience has a negative impact on the perception of precipitation change,and through it has a negative impact on technology adaptation behavior,and a positive impact on migration adaptation behavior.The experience of farmers’disaster reinforces the belief in global warming,and has an indirect positive impact on economic and technological adaptation behaviors.Disaster experience also has a direct negative impact on migration adaptation behavior.