基于夜光数据的中国经济区规模结构演变分析

The Evolution Analysis of the Scale Structure of China Economic Region Based on Nighttime Light

区域空间规模结构动态演变研究,对优化区域整体功能结构、促进区域一体化协调发展和充分发挥区域空间功能效应有重要意义。以夜间灯光数据为指标,利用夜间灯光统计分析、位序—规模法则、空间马尔科夫链模型对全国及四大经济区进行研究。结果表明:从区域规模差异来看,四大经济区发展不均衡,西部经济区增速最快,东中部经济区增速均衡、东北经济区增速较为迟缓;从区域规模结构来看,东中部经济区规模数量分布均由聚集走向分散,西部经济区始终表现为聚集,而东北经济区则表现为分散;从区域内城市规模等级转移来看,各区域内部等级锁定现象明显,保持稳定的概率均大于61.6%,但东部、中部经济区保持稳定概率较高,西部、东北经济区则相对较低;低等级城市保持稳定性最强,中低等级城市稳定性较差,较易发生等级转化,且存在少量跨越式等级转化。

The study on dynamic evolution of regional spatial scale structure is of great significance for optimizing regional overall functional structure,promoting coordinated development of regional integration and giving full play to regional spatial functional effect.Taking the nighttime light data as the index,the night light statistical analysis,the rule of sequence-scale and the spatial Markov chain model were used to study the whole country and the four economic zones.The results indicate that,from the perspective of regional scale differences,the development of the four economic zones is uneven.The western economic zone has the fastest growth rate,the eastern and central economic zones have a balanced growth rate,and the northeast economic zone has a relatively slow growth rate.From the perspective of regional scale structure,the scale and quantity distribution of the eastern and central economic zones all move from aggregation to dispersion.The western economic zone always shows aggregation,while the northeast economic zone shows dispersion.In terms of the scale shift of cities within the region,the locking phenomenon is obvious within each region,and the probability of maintaining stability is greater than 61.6%.However,the probability of maintaining stability in the eastern and central economic zones is relatively high,while that in the western and northeast e-conomic zones is relatively low.Low-grade cities maintain the strongest stability,while middle-grade cities have poor stability and are more prone to grade transformation,and there are a few leapfrog grade transformation.