基于面板数据的乘用车购买偏好分析

Analysis of Passenger Car Preference Based on Panel Data

基于2009-2019年中国乘用车销售面板数据,结合车辆特性构建Logit模型,分析车辆特性衍变对消费者需求的响应,对比中国和瑞士乘用车的消费偏好。研究结果显示:发动机燃油效率更高,功率更大的乘用车市场份额占比更高;重型车比轻型车更受中国消费者青睐;燃油效率的边际值在大功率汽车细分市场中较小,即最可能产生更多污染排放的消费者对汽车燃油效率的敏感性较低;仍处于乘用车快速普及阶段的中国与处于复数保有阶段(千人保有超过250辆)的瑞士,消费者偏好有明显差异,中国消费者对省油、大功率和重型乘用车的偏好在逐渐加深,瑞士消费者对省油、大功率和轻型车用车的偏好在逐步降低。

Based on the panel data of passenger car sales in China from 2009 to 2019,combined with vehicle characteristics,the Logit model is constructed to analyze the response of vehicle characteristics evolution to consumer demand,and to compare the consumer preferences of passenger cars in China and Switzerland.The results show that the market share of passenger cars with higher engine fuel efficiency and power is higher.Heavy vehicles are more favored by Chinese consumers than light vehicles.The marginal value of fuel efficiency is smaller in the high-power vehicle segment,that is,consumers who are most likely to produce more pollution emissions are less sensitive to vehicle fuel efficiency.And they are still in the stage of the rapid popularization of passenger cars.There are obvious differences in consumer preferences between China and Switzerland,which is in the stage of multiple ownership(more than 250 vehicles per thousand people).Chinese consumers'preference for fuel-efficient,high-power,and heavy-duty passenger cars is gradually deepening,while Swiss consumers'preference for fuel-efficient,high-power,and lightduty vehicles is gradually decreasing.