城市产业结构调整中的“逆库兹涅茨化”——基于流动人口居留意愿角度分析

“Inverse Kuznets”in the adjustment of urban industrial structure——Analysis based on residence willingness of migrant population

在产业结构调整中,流动人口离城返乡的“逆库兹涅茨化”现象越来越明显了。利用CMDS 2015数据,研究产业结构对中国流动人口居留意愿的影响。在加入个体特征与城市特征控制变量后,计量结果表明:产业结构水平的提高会显著提升流动人口居留意愿,且随着教育水平和从事行业的不同出现分化特征。首先,产业结构对高学历流动人口居留意愿的正向影响更大。其次,从产业内部看,产业结构显著降低了第一产业流动人口居留意愿,显著提升了第二产业和第三产业及其细分行业——生产性服务业的流动人口居留意愿,而对生活性与社会服务业的流动人口居留意愿有显著负向影响。影响机制检验结果发现,产业结构通过提高流动人口家庭收入、降低失业率及提高城市绿化率来影响流动人口居留意愿。

In the process of industrial restructuring,the phenomenon of“Inverse Kuznets”of migrants returning from cities is becoming more and more obvious.Using CMDS 2015 data,this paper studies the impact of industrial structure on the residential willingness of migrant population in China.After adding the control variables of individual characteristics and urban characteristics,the measurement results show that the improvement of industrial structure will significantly enhance the residential willingness of the migrant population with the level of education and industry differentiation characteristics.Firstly,the industrial structure has a greater positive impact on the willingness of migrant population with high education.Secondly,from the inside of the industry,the industrial structure significantly reduces the residential willingness of the migrant population in the primary industry,significantly improves the residential willingness of the migrant population in the secondary industry,the tertiary industry and its segmentations-producer services,and has a significant negative impact on the residential willingness of the migrant population in the living and social services industries.The results of the impact mechanism test show that the industrial structure affects the residential willingness of the migrant population by increasing the family income of the migrant population,reducing the unemployment rate and improving the urban greening rate.