中国开放经济系统及其发展模式的机理研究——基于复杂适应系统范式的解析

Mechanism Study on Chinese Open Economy System and Development Mode-Explanation Based on Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS)Paradigm

本文基于复杂适应系统(CAS)理论,通过刺激-反应模型、回声模型和受限生成的涌现模型,建立涵盖从微观至宏观完整经济联系的分析框架,专注研究中国开放经济系统及其发展模式的CAS模型化机理。通过运用CAS范式分析与总结中国40多年的开放历程发现:中国开放经济及其发展模式是复杂适应系统;40多年中国开放经济的“伟大奇迹”是包括中国政府和企业在内的各类经济行为主体主动适应和共同应对国内外环境的诸多“刺激”,逐渐演化涌现出富有适应性的内生规则集合,即中国开放经济发展模式,从而能够不断作出有效“反应”的累积性涌现结果;并且正是“适应”主导了中国开放经济40多年发展的“隐秩序”及其发展模式的不断革新。

Based on the complex adaptive system(CAS)theory,this paper establishes the analytical framework combining the complete economic relations from the micro level to the macro of economy through the stimuli-response model,the echo model and the model of emergence from constrained generations,focuses on the study of the mechanism of Chinese open economy system and its development mode.Then utilizing this analytical framework,the paper analyzes and summarizes the opening process of China in the past 40 years thoroughly.The following conclusions are drawn:Chinese open economy and its development mode are complex adaptive systems;the“great miracle”of Chinese open economy in the past more than 40 years is a cumulative emerging result from which economic agents including all kinds of enterprises and governments,jointly respond and actively adapt to stimulus from domestic and foreign environments,and gradually evolve a set of adaptive endogenous rules,that is,Chinese open economic development mode,so as to constantly make effective responses.It can be said that it is adaptation that dominated the hidden order of Chinese open economy and the continuous innovation of its development mode for the past 40 years.