粤港澳大湾区背景下澳门入境旅游效率——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证

On the Efficiency of Macao’s Inbound Tourism in the Contextof the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay AreaBased on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

在粤港澳大湾区背景下运用随机前沿引力模型测算澳门的入境旅游效率,发现入境旅游效率值较高的省(市、自治区)主要集中在内地的两湖、中原、东北、江浙沪和西南地区,而作为澳门入境旅游主要客源地的东南沿海省区却呈现出了较低的水平。澳门和内地各入境旅游省(市、自治区)人均GDP的增长,澳门人口数量的增加,地理距离接近,文化语言相近等因素均对澳门入境旅游市场的发展产生积极的正向作用。除双边政策联系之外,处于沿海地区、经济开放水平的加深、城镇居民人均可支配收入的增加、旅游航空业的迅速发展都会促进澳门旅游产品及服务出口效率的提升。

In the situation of the greater bay area of Guangdong,HongKong and Macao,this paper uses the stochastic frontier model to measure the Macao gravity inbound tourism efficiency.It is found that the provinces with high inbound tourism efficiency are mainly concentrated in the inland areas of Hunan and Hubei province,central plains,northeast,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai and southwest,while the southeast coastal provinces,as the main tourist source of Macao’s inbound tourism,show a low level.Factors such as the growth of per capita GDP of Macao and the mainland’s inbound tourism provinces and regions,the increase of Macao’s population,the geographical proximity of Macao and its similar cultural and language have a positive effect on the development of Macao’s inbound tourism market.In addition to the bilateral policy,the coastal areas,the deepening of economic opening,the increase of per capita disposable income of urban residents and the rapid development of tourism and aviation industry will promote the export efficiency of Macao’s tourism products and services.