摘要
美国页岩气革命改变了美国能源发展状况,同时对全球能源格局产生了不小的冲击与影响。论文在考虑页岩气革命的发展以及对国际天然气市场冲击的基础上,通过计量模型来揭示页岩气革命对北美、欧洲、日本天然气市场的相互关系是否有显著影响。首先论文以1988年6月—2018年5月相关月度数据为依据,引入BP断点检验模型,即在传统单位根的基础上引入结构突变,并结合相关政策分析美国页岩气发展阶段的特征。然后采用脉冲响应和方差分析法分析页岩气革命前后全球3大天然气市场的关联,在对序列合理分段的基础上,结合对不同阶段天然气产业形势的分析,进而揭示美国页岩气革命影响全球天然气市场的过程及内在机理。结果表明,美国"页岩气革命"提升了欧美天然气价格对亚洲天然气市场甚至全球天然气市场的影响力。
America’s shale gas revolution alters its energy development,and also impacts the global energy pattern.This paper,based on its development and impacts of shale gas revolution,uses a quantitative model to reveal if it brings an impact on the natural gas markets of North America,Europe and Japan.On the basis of monthly data of 1988 June to 2018 May,BP breakpoint test model which structural mutation is adapted on the traditional unit root is used to analyze its characters of America’s shale gas developing stages combined with related policies.Impulse response and variance is employed to study their correlation of the three big global gas markets before and after shale gas revolution.Sequence segmentation and industrial status of natural gas suggests the process and mechanism of America’s shale gas revolution on global natural gas market.It is concluded that America’s shale gas revolution raises its influence of American-European natural gas price on Asian market or even the global market.
作者
黎江峰
吴巧生
薛双娇
LI Jiangfeng;WU Qiaosheng;XUE Shuangjiao(School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Research Center for Mineral Resources Strategy and Policies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《资源与产业》
2020年第6期89-97,共9页
Resources & Industries
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA112)。
关键词
页岩气革命
能源格局
BP断点检验
天然气市场
shale gas revolution
energy pattern
BP breakpoint check
natural gas market
