基于主成分分析的我国天然气市场高质量发展评价

High Quality Development Evaluation of China’s Natural Gas Market Based on Principal Component Analysis

天然气作为优质、高效的清洁能源,在我国经济高质量发展和能源转型过程中扮演着重要角色。以往对天然气市场高质量发展的研究多采用定性分析方式,并未实际测评高质量发展水平。为了客观评价我国天然气市场高质量发展水平,从供需规模、基础设施、市场效率、低碳环保和经济发展五方面构建评价指标体系,选取30个省份的天然气相关数据,运用主成分分析法和分层聚类法定量测评我国天然气市场区域和省域间差异。结果表明:我国天然气市场高质量发展水平差异较大,区域间呈东部发展最优、中部其次、西部和东北发展水平较低的特征,省域间呈两极分化较大的特征;通过聚类分析可将我国30个省份天然气市场发展质量分为好、较好、一般和较差4类。为促进天然气市场高质量发展,我国应推进天然气市场供给侧结构性改革,以五大发展理念引领高质量发展,因地制宜制定区域和省域天然气市场发展战略,构建低碳清洁、经济高效且安全可靠的天然气市场。

As a high-quality and efficient clean energy,natural gas plays an important role in China’s high-quality economic development and energy transformation.In the past,qualitative analysis was often used in the study of high-quality development of natural gas market,but the high-quality development level was not measured.In order to objectively evaluate the high-quality development level of natural gas market,a high-quality evaluation index system of natural gas market is constructed based on the relevant data of 30 provinces from five aspects of supply and demand scale,infrastructure,market efficiency,low-carbon environmental protection and economic development.The principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering method are used to quantitatively measure the regional and provincial differences of natural gas market in China.The results show that there are great differences in the high-quality development of the national natural gas market,with the best development in the East,the second in the middle,the lower development level in the West and the Northeast,and that there is great polarization in the provinces.Through cluster analysis,the development quality of the natural gas market in 30 provinces in China can be divided into four categories:perfect,good,general and poor.In order to promote the high-quality development of the natural gas market,China should promote the supply side structural reform of the natural gas market,lead the high-quality development with five development concepts,formulate regional and provincial natural gas market development strategies according to local conditions,and build a low-carbon,clean,economic,efficient,safe and reliable natural gas market.