基于GIS的四川省土地资源承载力时空差异研究

GIS-Based Research on the Temporal and Spatial Differences of Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Sichuan Province

为测评四川省近年来土地资源承载力,以国家统一标准为基础,基于GIS空间分析功能,选用土地资源承载力(LCC)模型和土地资源承载力指数(LCCI)模型,根据国家“五年规划”政策,从全省、分市(州)两个空间尺度定量分析了“十五”“十一五”“十二五”和“十三五”四个规划年期间,四川省土地资源承载力的时空差异性.结果表明:2001—2018年间,四川省全省的土地资源承载指数(LCCI)平均值为1.010,土地资源超载率为1%,总体处于人口临界超载的状态,其中土地资源承载力最大的为南充市,最小的为阿坝藏族羌族自治州.对比“十三五”规划年和“十五”规划年,四川省土地资源承载力下降的市(州)有6个,占全省的29%,主要分布于四川省中部与北部,分别是成都市、遂宁市、眉山市、雅安市、资阳市和阿坝藏族羌族自治州.土地资源承载力上升的市(州)有15个,占全省的71%,大部分市(州)的土地资源承载力获得提高.

To find out about the land resources carrying capacity in the Sichuan province,a quantitative analysis is made to explore the spatial-temporal differences of the land resources carrying capacity,from the two scales of province as a whole and each individual prefecture-level city,using the national uniform standard as the basic standard,based on the spatial analysis function of GIS,with the aid of the land resource carrying capacity(LCC)model and the land resource carrying capacity index(LCCI),in conformity to the“Five-Year Plan”policy,and the“Tenth Five-Year Plan”,“Eleventh Five-Year Plan”,“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”and“Thirteenth five-year plan”are used as the time scale and the province as a whole plus each individual prefecture-level city(state)are used as the spatial scale.The results show that from 2001 to 2018,the average LCCI of Sichuan Province is 1.010,and the overload rate of land resources is 1%,which is in the state of population critical overload.Nanchong City has the largest average carrying capacity of land resources,and Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture has the smallest.A Comparison of the“Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”and the“Tenth Five-Year Plan”finds that there are 6 cities(prefectures)in Sichuan Province where the carrying capacity of land resources has declined,accounting for 29%of the 21 cities(prefectures)in the province.,which are mainly distributed in the middle and north of Sichuan Province,namely Chengdu,Suining,Meishan,Ya’an and Ziyang And Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture.There are 15 cities(prefectures)whose land resource carrying capacity has increased,accounting for 71%of 21 cities(prefectures)in the province,indicating that the land resource carrying capacity of most cities(prefectures)in Sichuan Province has increased.