基于贝叶斯网络的生鲜物流风险评估

Fresh Food Logistics Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Network

随着生鲜市场的规模日渐扩大,如何有效地对生鲜配送过程中各阶段的风险进行评估是一个亟待解决的问题.文章从信息技术,设施设备,人员操作以及外部环境四个方面对生鲜物流配送展开风险评估,运用模糊集理论消除专家评分的主观性,结合贝叶斯网络构造风险评估模型,并采用GeNIe软件对模型进行仿真.最终得到了定量的风险评估结果,对生鲜企业规避风险具有重要意义.

With the development of Internet e-commerce,how to effectively assess the risks in each stage of the fresh food distribution process is an urgent problem to be solved.The main research content of this paper is the risk assessment of fresh logistics distribution.Four categories are considered,including information technology,facilities and equipment,personnel operation and external environment.It uses fuzzy set theory to eliminate the subjectivity of expert scoring and combines Bayesian network to construct risk model.The Bayes model is simulated by GeNIe software.Finally,quantitative risk assessment results are obtained,which is of great significance for fresh enterprises to avoid risks.