人口老龄化与犯罪率关系实证研究

An Empirical Study of Population Aging and Crime Rate

通常观点认为,社会步入老龄化后,青少年所占人口比例下降,会导致社会总体犯罪率下降。然而,实际情况可能并非如此。通过对2002~2017年省级面板部分数据的实证研究发现:在老年人养老、老年人社会保障事业、文化事业等准备工作尚未完备的情况下,人口老龄化程度与犯罪率上升之间呈显著的正相关关系。由此可以推测,随着我国老龄化程度持续加深,在各项应对准备工作不足的情况下,社会总体犯罪率将持续升高。为避免和预防犯罪率的持续升高,政府及有关部门在制定犯罪预防策略时,应该关注我国老年人口这一弱势群体,加快健全、完善社会保障制度。

It is generally believed that the declining percentage of teenagers in population after entering an aging society will lead to a decline in the overall crime rate of the society.However,this may not be the case.Through the empirical research on the provincial panel data from 2002-2017,it is found that there is a significant positive correlation between the aging degree of the population and the rise of the crime rate when the preparatory work for the elderly pension,social security and cultural undertakings of the elderly has not been completed.Therefore,it can be inferred that with the deepening of aging in China,the overall crime rate will continue to rise in the case of insufficient preparation work.In order to avoid and prevent the continuous rise of crime rate,the government and relevant departments should pay attention to the vulnerable group of the elderly population in our country when formulating crime prevention strategies,and speed up the improvement of social security system.