基于泊松-耿贝尔法的最大风速估算

THE EXTREME WIND SPEED ESTIMATION BASED ON THE POISSON-GUMBEL METHOD

由于每年发生台风的次数、移动路径及强度都是随机的,构成了某种离散性分布,常规采用的极值Ⅰ型分布的耿贝尔法是收集每年的最大风速,这种方法无法收集到每一次台风影响的最大风速。文中采用泊松-耿贝尔联合极值风速计算方法,计算了重现期为5、10、20、50年的最大风速与基本风压。结果表明泊松-耿贝尔联合极值风速计算方法偏差比极值Ⅰ型分布的耿贝尔法更小。在观测年代较短的地区,泊松-耿贝尔联合极值风速计算方法较为稳定,说明泊松-耿贝尔法更适合用在拆除工程等短期工程中进行风速计算。

Since the number,movement path and intensity of typhoons occur each year are random and constitute a kind of discrete distribution,Gumbel method,which routinely uses extreme valueⅠdistribution,collected the maximum wind speed date of each year.However,this method cannot collect the maximum wind speed affected by each typhoon.Therefore,the Poisson-Gumbel combined extreme wind speed was used to calculate the maximum wind speed.The basic wind pressure of a reproducing period of 5 years,10 years,20 years and 50 years is presented.The results show that the deviation of the combined extreme wind speed calculation method of Poisson-Gumbel is less than the Gumbel method of extreme value I distribution.In the case of stations with short observational periods,the results calculated by the Poisson-Gumbel method combined extreme wind speed calculation method are more stable,indicating that Poisson-Gumbel method is more suitable for short-term projects such as demolition works.