空气质量对中国人口迁移的影响

Examining the role of air quality in shaping the landscape of China′s internal migration:Phase characteristics,push and pull effects

随着中国流动人口群体构成和迁移模式的持续变化,空气质量等舒适性要素逐渐成为塑造人口迁移空间格局的重要因素。基于2000年以来的人口普查和抽样调查数据,本文探讨了空气质量对人口迁移影响的总体特征、变动趋势和作用模式。研究发现,空气质量已逐渐成为影响中国人口迁移格局的重要因素,且主要表现为推力作用。空气质量直接关系到人口迁出决策,污染严重的地区更难留住人;而在迁入地选择过程中,收入水平和就业机会则更为重要,但其影响近年来有所弱化,城市吸引力更加综合多元。此外,研究还验证了教育资源对人口迁移的导向性作用,并从人口迁移的角度发现了城市群作为城镇化主体形态的地位在持续强化。

With the continuous changes in the composition and migration patterns of floating population in China,amenities such as air quality have gradually become important factors in shaping the spatial pattern of migration.On one hand,the heterogeneous demand structure of various subgroups of migrants is surely to lead to substantial change in their overall preference for attributes of destination cities as the composition of migrants evolves significantly in recent years,that is,but not limited to,the increasing shares of the high-skilled,the aged,and followers.On the other hand,emerging types of migration such as inter-city migration,secondary migration,and return migration has not only made the spatial modes of China′s internal migration much more complex than before but also provided more opportunities to cities that used to lack economic superiority and thus can rarely share the migration dividend in the past.Against this background,based on the data of population censuses and sample surveys since 2000 and by using panel data models,this paper explores the overall characteristics,changing trends and acting paths of the effect of air quality on migration.Regression results of the panel data model demonstrated the significantly positive association between air quality and net migration rate which has rarely been discussed in previous literature.A set of crosssectional models further revealed the increasing role that air quality plays in affecting the geography of China′s internal migration,which is in line with the migration transition history of developed countries.In-depth analysis on the mechanism of this effect found that the environmental condition has been acting mainly as a push factor instead of a pull one.Air quality is directly related to the emigration decision,which means that a number of Chinese people have been escaping from heavily polluted areas.In contrast,satisfactory air quality and pleasant living conditions have not been a vital factor in attracting migrants.As it is a fact that income level and job opportunity still play a significant role in pulling,their overall influence has been shrinking gradually as the income level increases commonly in all Chinese cities.In addition,the study verified the guiding role of accessibility of educational resources for cities to attract internal migrants and further revealed the continuously strengthened position of megalopolises as the main spatial form of China′s new-type urbanization from the perspective of migration.