资料缺乏地区水系连通工程效益评价方法研究

Assessment method of benefits of interconnected water systems in data-scarce regions

在资料缺乏地区,常规的指标体系法难以用于水系连通工程的效益评价,是生态水利工程管理中的难题。本文借助易于获取的卫星遥感数据与常规水质监测数据,提取并融合水系连通度、景观脆弱度、水质污染度三个特征指标,建立了适用于资料缺乏地区水系连通工程的综合效益指数(CEI),进而运用德尔菲法确定指标权重,采用模糊综合评价法定量评价了鄱阳湖典型滨湖城市共青城市2018、2019年河湖水系连通工程的综合效益。结果表明:2018和2019年共青城市水系连通工程CEI分别为2.014和1.906,水系连通度和景观脆弱度无显著改变,水质污染度为主要压力因子。CEI评价方法不仅能够在统计资料缺乏的情况下对水系连通工程效益进行定量评价,而且能阐明各指标结果的时空特性,为水系连通工程建设提供参考。

A great difficulty lies in applying the traditional index system to assessing water system connectivity in data-scarce regions,a Gordian knot in the management of ecological water conservancy projects.Based on the easy-to-access satellite data and conventional water quality data,we extract three characteristic indexes-water system connectivity,landscape fragility,and water quality pollution,and establish a comprehensive benefit index(CEI)for the projects of interconnected water systems(PIWS)in data-scarce regions.Then,the Delphi method is used to determine the weight,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to evaluate quantitatively the PIWS in the Gongqingcheng City in 2018 and 2019.The results show that its CEIs of these two years were 2.014 and 1.906 respectively,while its water system connectivity or landscape fragility index did not change significantly and water quality pollution index was the main pressure factor.The CEI-based method can not just assess quantitatively the PIWS effect in the absence of statistical data,but offer a spatiotemporal analysis of the indicators,helping improve the construction of similar projects.